Growth and Instability in Area, Production, and Productivity of Apple in Afghanistan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66546/aijs.v2i2.22Keywords:
Area, CAGR, Instability, Production, Productivity, Apple ExportsAbstract
This study addresses the lack of empirical evidence on the growth, instability, and export performance of apple production in Afghanistan by examining changes in area, production, and productivity from 2011 to 2023, with a focus on the major apple-producing provinces. The objective was to estimate growth rates, assess instability, and analyze export trends. The study used secondary data from NSIA (2023) and applied a semi-log functional form to estimate compound growth rates, while instability was measured using the Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI). The results revealed positive growth in area, production, and productivity across most provinces, except for a decline in area in Kabul (-1.42%). Higher growth rates were observed in Maidan Wardak, Ghazni, and Paktia provinces. Instability analysis showed low variability in Kabul, moderate in Maidan Wardak, and high in Ghazni and Paktia. Furthermore, trend analysis from 2009 to 2023, with projections to 2026, indicated increasing production but a relatively low export share, suggesting a gap between production potential and export performance. The study highlights the need for improved export strategies and policy intervention.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Sebghatullah Samim, Mohammad Ismail Hashime (Author)
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